LES IMMORTELS

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Politique

The Strait of Hormuz and the Perilous Game of Brinkmanship

As Iran threatens to close one of the world's most vital maritime passages, we confront an old folly: the belief that nations can coerce one another into submission through the strangulation of trade.

The closure of vital trade routes is not statecraft; it is the abandonment of statecraft.

When a nation declares it has closed the Strait of Hormuz—that narrow passage through which one-fifth of the world's traded oil flows—we are witnessing not merely a military gesture, but a confession of desperation. Iran's repeated declarations on this matter, tied to the escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, reveal a logic as old as tyranny itself: the conviction that you may bend others to your will by threatening their livelihood. History judges such methods harshly, and for good reason. The closure of vital trade routes is not statecraft; it is the abandonment of statecraft.

What troubles me more deeply is the cycle into which we have fallen. Each strike begets a counter-threat; each violation of a ceasefire—real or alleged—justifies the next escalation. The Lebanese people, already bearing the weight of conflict, now watch their natural heritage destroyed: a conservationist, Mona Khalil, killed in an Israeli strike while pursuing the noble work of protecting sea turtles. In the midst of negotiations supposedly aimed at de-escalation, the guns do not fall silent. This is the tragedy of those who speak of peace while preparing war. And the world watches, seemingly powerless, as reason yields to vendetta.

Yet I do not believe the situation is without remedy. The announced talks between the United States and Iran, set to convene in Switzerland, represent at least a thin thread of hope. But hope without clarity is merely sentiment. These negotiations can succeed only if all parties acknowledge a simple truth: that the blockade of trade, the killing of civilians, the violation of ceasefires—none of these serve any nation's true interest. True strength lies not in the capacity to inflict pain, but in the wisdom to recognize when pain has been inflicted enough. The Strait of Hormuz should remain open to the commerce of all nations. The cease-fire in Lebanon should be restored with genuine commitment. And those who claim to lead must find the courage to step back from the abyss.

This is not weakness; it is the hardest form of courage. For it requires each side to acknowledge that its adversary is also human, also fearful, also capable of reason. The alternative—the slow tightening of the noose around global trade, the endless cycle of retaliation—serves only those who profit from chaos. And history will judge us not by our capacity for vengeance, but by our willingness to choose the difficult path of negotiation and mutual respect. That path remains open. The question is whether we have the will to walk it.

Lire tout le numéro du 2026-06-21 — Les Immortels